The Bills have lost two of their last three games, with their most recent defeat coming against the lowly Patriots in Week 7. As they enter, the Buccaneers are coming off consecutive losses to the Lions and Falcons. What are the odds on this?
Schatz: Since losing Matt Milano to an early injury in Week 5’s London game against the Jaguars, the Bills’ defence has fallen apart. Defensive DVOA rankings had them at second through Week 4, but by Week 7 they had dropped to 28th. However, the long-term effects on the Bills’ defence are likely to be minimal.
My system favours the Bills to cover the spread against the Bucs because their third-ranked offence is more productive than Tampa Bay’s twenty-fourth-ranked offence. So, despite Buffalo’s erratic play, Bills -8.5 seems like a good wager.
Moody: The Bills -8.5 has my money. Buffalo has to get back on track after last week’s devastating loss to the Patriots. On Thursday night, against a Buccaneers club that has lost three of its last four, I think the Bills will be able to find it. The Buccaneers allow the sixth-most passing yards, so Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs should have a lot of success against them.
The Buccaneers’ running game, which is among the bottom of the league in rushing yards per game, should be easy for the Bills to stop. I think Buffalo will beat the Buccaneers handily at home, despite their 3-4 record against the spread so far this season. The Bills are 4-1 in their last 5 games against NFC opponents. The Buccaneers have lost 12 of their 14 games against teams that ended the season with winning records against the spread.
Final Grade: Buccaneers Squad Overall score HIGHER THAN 16.5. Key members of the Bills’ defence (Matt Milano, DaQuan Jones, and Tre’Davious White) are all out with injuries. Last week, the Buffalo defence gave up 365 total yards and 29 points to the New England offence, which averaged 6.6 yards per play. In the passing game, Baker Mayfield should do well.
The Bills have scored 39 points in their last two games while the Buccaneers have managed only 19. Do you think there will be few goals scored in this matchup, given recent trends?
Schatz: I think it will end up being OVER 43. When evaluating offences, I like to take a season-long view. The Bills have the third-best offence this year, as I mentioned before. Even though the Buccaneers are only ranked 24th, Buffalo’s defence has deteriorated due to injuries, increasing the likelihood that the Bucs will score.
I understand that Thursday games often include poor play, but that could lead to a defensive touchdown.
Fulghum: Betting OVER 43 sounds good to me. I believe we have a good opportunity to attack the over despite the fact that unders have won the majority of Prime-time games this season (16-7). The Bills offence needs a breakout game badly. Over their last three games, they have managed just 19.7 points per game on average.
However, I believe Tampa can keep things close. Since losing CB Tre’Davious White and LB Matt Milano, the Bills’ defence has looked quite weak. The Patriots, led by Mac Jones, scored 29 points against them previous week. The final score is Bills 27, Buccaneers 20.
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Due to wrist surgery, the Bills will be without Dawson Knox. Do any of Buffalo’s receiving options sound better now?
Dalton Kincaid catches a pass for 37 yards and scores a touchdown.
Schatz: Due to their differing offensive positions, I don’t think Gabe Davis will see much of Knox. As a result, the Bills are likely to play 11 personnel more often, with Kincaid and possibly third receivers Khalil Shakir and Trent Sherfield taking over some of Knox’s previous targets.
Since Tampa Bay ranks eighth in DVOA against No. 2 receivers this season (they limited DeVonta Smith to 28 yards, for example), I’d lean towards taking the under on Gabe Davis’s yardage total of 39.5, though I wouldn’t be opposed to taking the over on Kincaid’s total of 36.5.
Fulghum: This seems like a game plan that is set on featuring a lot of Diggs, given the offense’s dire need for a confidence-boosting performance. Both Diggs and Dalton Kincaid’s OVER 36.5 and 86.5 receiving yards are tempting bets. However, caution is advised. The bookies have taken Knox’s absence into account in these lines because he is OUT. These two, however, will be in a fantastic position if Buffalo’s offence performs as I expect it to tonight.
Walder: I’m going to go with my instinct and choose Kincaid to have more than 36.5 receiving yards. This season, Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Mark Andrews, and… Kincaid rank as the top four tight ends in our Receiver Tracking Metrics’ Overall Score. He’s third, even higher than Andrews. With Knox gone, I anticipate a major promotion for Kincaid.
Khalil Shakir’s TD at any moment (+750) is worth points. The Bills typically employ a two-TE formation, but without Knox, they will switch to a three-WR formation. Shakir’s playing time will increase after he completed all four passes for a perfect 35 yards last week. Where he left off is where he needs to pick up.
Which piece of equipment do you like to use the most?
Over 21.5 receiving yards for Rachaad White, per Fulghum. The loss of LB Matt Milano has inspired this particular play. Without him, the Bills’ passing game task for White is much easier. Against this Bills defence last week, Rhamondre Stevenson had 6 receptions for 51 yards.
Over 6.5 tackles and assists (-104) for Devin White, according to Walder. Because of the spread, my tackles model predicts that White will make 7.7 tackles in this game. Since Buffalo is favoured by a large margin, the team may try to establish an early lead by relying more on the ground game.
White benefits from this since he makes a greater percentage of his tackles (by play type) on run plays than he does on pass plays.
Forecast: Rachaad White will have LESS than 43.5 yards rushing. When it comes to rushing the ball, the Buccaneers are 21st in attempts per game and 29th in yards per game. The Bills’ defensive front is the sixth-best in the league at preventing runs. White has gone for more over 43.5 yards in the ground only twice in six games this year.
Do you have any more Thursday games planned?
Under 0.25 sacks for Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (-175 at DraftKings), per Walder. Josh Allen’s sack rate of 4% is third-lowest in the NFL, and the Bills’ pass block victory rate is sixth-best. My simulations show that a bet on Tryon-Shoyinka has a 74% (-289) chance of winning. He is ranked 44th out of 56 edge rushers.
